Reports have emerged showing that Egypt is assembling 5,000 troops as part of a successor force to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).
It recently emerged that AU Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM) would take over from ATMIS in January 2025.
ATMIS’ term ends on December 31, 2024.
Thus far, ATMIS has been pulling out some of its staff from Somalia. It has carried out a number of phased drawdowns.
This move is significant and would mark a major shift in the regional dynamics.
The deployment would include a mix of infantry, mechanized units, and air force components, likely focusing on securing and stabilizing the wider Banaadir region, which includes the capital, Mogadishu.
If Egypt is indeed planning this deployment, it would represent a notable involvement in Somalia’s security landscape, possibly aligning with broader regional interests in the Horn of Africa.
The Banaadir region is strategically important due to its location and economic significance, and having a robust military presence there could influence the ongoing fight against al-Shabaab and other militant groups.
This potential deployment could also indicate Egypt’s increased engagement in regional security affairs, especially in the context of counterterrorism and maintaining stability in Somalia.
The presence of mechanized units and air force components suggests that Egypt is preparing for a comprehensive military role, not just peacekeeping but active combat operations if necessary.
However, this deployment would likely require coordination with the Somali government, the AU, and possibly other international stakeholders to ensure it fits within the broader framework of international efforts to stabilize Somalia.
The exact nature of this mission, whether it falls under a UN mandate, a bilateral agreement, or another framework, would also shape its impact on the ground.