Al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group, has significantly intensified its operations in Somalia during 2025. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and the Institute for the Study of War, the group has increased its attacks by approximately 50% per month in the Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions compared to its 2024 average.
On March 18, 2025, Al-Shabaab attempted to assassinate Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. A roadside bomb targeted his convoy near the presidential palace in Mogadishu as he was en route to the main airport to oversee military operations against the group. The President was unharmed and continued his journey to the front lines.
In addition to the assassination attempt, Al-Shabaab has recaptured several towns previously lost during the Somali government’s 2022 offensive. Notably, the group seized control of areas in the Mudug region, including the strategic town of Ba’adweyn, following the withdrawal of government and allied forces.
The current security landscape in Somalia is complex, with ongoing counter-terrorism efforts facing challenges from Al-Shabaab’s incursions into regions surrounding the capital, Mogadishu. Additionally, operations continue against the ISIS branch in the mountainous northeastern Puntland region. The African Union has condemned the assassination attempt on President Mohamud and reaffirmed its support for Somalia’s efforts to combat terrorism and promote stability.