Mogadishu, Somalia — Somalia’s persistent internal divisions are severely undermining the country’s ability to combat the extremist group Al-Shabaab, according to a new analysis by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Africa.
The think tank warns that the militant group is “exploiting political and societal rifts to strengthen its position and carry out attacks,” with disunity emerging as “its most powerful weapon in destabilizing the country.”
The ISS report emphasizes that political infighting, delayed elections, weak federal-state cooperation, clan rivalries, and an incomplete security transition have all created a vacuum Al-Shabaab is quick to exploit.
“Rather than bullets or bombs, it is Somalia’s fragmented governance that gives Al-Shabaab its greatest strategic advantage,” the report states.
Recent high-profile attacks—including the deadly siege at Mogadishu’s Lido Beach Hotel and frequent bombings in regional capitals like Beledweyne and Jowhar—have highlighted the group’s ability to adapt and regroup despite military pressure from Somali forces and international partners.
“Each time the federal and regional governments clash or local grievances go unresolved, Al-Shabaab steps in with parallel systems of governance, justice, and taxation,” ISS notes.
The group reportedly collects millions of dollars annually in extortion and zakat (Islamic tax), in areas where government services are either absent or rejected.
Somali leaders have acknowledged the danger.
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre recently admitted that “internal weaknesses” are hampering counterterrorism efforts and called for “a united national front.” However, critics argue that political will to resolve deep-rooted tensions remains lacking.
Security experts warn that upcoming transitions, including the withdrawal of African Union troops and the full handover of security responsibilities to Somali forces, could falter without unity.
“Disunity could sabotage the fragile gains made in the last decade,” the ISS cautioned.
The report calls on Somali stakeholders—government, opposition, clan elders, and civil society—to urgently pursue reconciliation, inclusive governance, and reform, saying “only a united Somalia can defeat Al-Shabaab.”
As Al-Shabaab continues to adapt and embed itself in the country’s fractured landscape, the window to reverse its gains through coordinated national action is rapidly narrowing.