Mogadishu, Somalia – Somalia’s upcoming elections could present a greater threat to Mogadishu’s stability than an Al-Shabaab assault, according to Ashley Jackson, Co-Director at the Centre on Armed Groups.
In an interview with The Telegraph, Jackson cautioned that the capital’s greatest vulnerability lies not in immediate militant attacks but in public distrust of the government’s ability to govern effectively.
“Mogadishu isn’t in immediate danger militarily, but the public’s worries reveal how little faith they have in the Somali government’s capacity to manage the situation,” she noted.
Her remarks highlight growing public anxiety ahead of the polls, with political infighting, corruption allegations, and delays in security sector reform eroding confidence in state institutions. Analysts warn that such disillusionment could fuel unrest, undermine election credibility, and embolden spoilers seeking to destabilize the city.
The warning comes as Somalia continues to battle Al-Shabaab insurgents while navigating political reforms and preparing for a high-stakes electoral process expected to shape the country’s fragile democratic transition.