Mogadishu, Somalia – The European Union and United States have together funneled more than $7 billion into Somalia’s security sector since 2007, primarily through funding African Union-led peacekeeping missions, according to data from the EU Institute for Security Studies.
Yet, nearly two decades later, Somalia remains reliant on international forces, with donor nations increasingly questioning the long-term results of their investment.
The latest iteration of the African Union’s security presence in Somalia, known as the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), was launched in early 2025 after the previous mission, African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), concluded in December 2024. The abrupt replacement, however, has reignited concerns over the readiness of the Somali National Army (SNA) to take full security responsibility.
“There’s a huge amount of donor fatigue. People are asking: ‘What have we bought for the last 10 years?’ Seeing the army run away and having [to create] AUSSOM was really hard for people,” a diplomat told AFP anonymously.
The comment reflects growing frustration in Western capitals and donor circles, where support for Somalia’s security apparatus has long been tied to expectations of reform, training, and operational independence by the national armed forces. Instead, setbacks—such as recent retreats by SNA units during Al-Shabaab offensives—have cast doubt on the progress of capacity-building efforts.
Over the years, the African Union’s military presence, beginning with AMISOM in 2007 and continuing through ATMIS, has been pivotal in pushing Al-Shabaab militants out of major urban centers like Mogadishu, Kismayo, and Baidoa. However, the insurgent group remains resilient, maintaining influence across vast rural regions and continuing to carry out deadly attacks.
AUSSOM, which is expected to last up to five years, will operate with a reduced force of fewer than 12,000 troops, under a new Concept of Operations (CONOPS) that has yet to finalize which countries will contribute personnel. The mission’s success hinges not only on troop deployments but also on meaningful collaboration with Somali forces, whose ability to hold and stabilize recovered areas remains in question.
Security analysts warn that unless Somalia accelerates defense sector reforms, improves logistical coordination, and boosts morale within its national forces, even renewed foreign backing may prove unsustainable.
For now, both the EU and U.S. continue to bankroll Somali security, albeit amid louder demands for accountability and long-term results.
“It’s not just about defeating Al-Shabaab. It’s about building a self-reliant Somalia that no longer needs emergency bailouts in the form of military missions,” said an observer who requested anonymity.