Ethiopia’s expected reaction to the potential deployment of Egyptian troops in Somalia is deeply rooted in the ongoing tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa, particularly over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River.
Ethiopia sees any military presence of Egypt in a neighboring country, especially Somalia, as a strategic threat.
This is because it could potentially enable Egypt to exert pressure on Ethiopia from multiple fronts, exacerbating the already strained relations between the two nations.
For Ethiopia, such a move by Egypt might be interpreted as an act of encirclement, potentially destabilizing the region and escalating the GERD dispute into a broader regional conflict.
Ethiopia might express “deep reservations” and “grave concerns” through diplomatic channels, potentially involving the African Union or other regional organizations, to address what it perceives as a provocative and hostile action.
The situation is complicated further by Somalia’s position, as it could be seen as a battleground for influence between these two powerful neighbors, with Somalia’s sovereignty and stability at risk in the crossfire of larger geopolitical struggles.
