Mogadishu, Somalia – A recent analysis from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies cautions that the militant organization Al-Shabaab might soon seize Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, either by force or through talks, following their takeover of several towns this year.
Al-Shabaab initiated a significant campaign in central Somalia at the start of the year, undoing much of the progress achieved by Somali government troops and supporting clan militias. These units had received backing from U.S. and Turkish airstrikes amid an operation that began in mid-2022. The group also regained control of locations it had not held in over ten years, such as the key town of Mahas, taken from them by Ethiopian forces in 2014.
“Then, inexplicably, the advance paused, leaving Somalia’s beleaguered federal government to claim victory while less sanguine observers wondered when the offensive might resume,” stated the report, authored by Somalia expert Matt Bryden.
The analysis cautions that “absent a dramatic change in direction, likely near-term scenarios include collapse of the federal government and an al Shabaab takeover of the national capital, with profound consequences for regional stability and security.”
The report notes that the militants advanced to the edges of Mogadishu earlier this year, setting up checkpoints that led foreign embassies to evacuate non-essential personnel.
It contends that Al-Shabaab’s escalating danger stems from the Somali government’s ineffectiveness, graft, and ongoing political disputes between central authorities and regional administrations.
“Al Shabaab’s strength, however, has always been a reflection of the Somali government’s weakness. Despite more than two decades of investment and billions of dollars in training and equipment, the Somali National Army (SNA) is still incapable of sustained clearing and holding operations,” the report observed.
With Somali officials still at odds, the analysis posits that the insurgents are biding their time as global allies tire of the stalemate. This exhaustion, it alerts, might lead to diminished security aid for the federal government and AUSSOM, the African Union mission, increasing chances of an international troop pullout.
“Al Shabaab, for its part, seems content to watch and wait while its enemies quarrel, international partners cut back on security and development assistance, and AUSSOM contemplates withdrawal,” the report observed.
“As a growing number of international partners have begun quietly exploring prospects for a negotiated peace with the militants, absent some deus ex machina to salvage Somalia’s federal system, Al-Shabaab’s seizure of Mogadishu may already be simply a matter of time whether through military action or negotiations.”
Such a development would probably spark “a new cycle of armed conflict” pitting a strengthened Al-Shabaab, holding a city of four million, against its foes across Somalia. Adjacent nations would confront greater threats of fresh border-crossing terror strikes.
“The time for hopeful half-measures is past. Only urgent, decisive, and concerted intervention can prevent Somalia from becoming a jihadist state,” the report cautioned.
