Kismayo, Jubbaland – Senior Somali opposition leaders are in Kismayo for a crucial political conference starting today. The event will formalize the Somali Future Council, a new opposition coalition uniting politicians from Mogadishu with representatives from Puntland and Jubbaland administrations.
This assembly occurs as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s presidency draws near the end of its term, with elections scheduled for 2026. President Mohamud has vigorously advocated for the shift to universal suffrage, even as voter registration and card distribution proceed in various regions of the country.
According to opposition figures, the conference intends to address what they perceive as unilateral decisions made by the federal government concerning elections, constitutional amendments, and the handling of the political transition process.
The core disagreement revolves around the federal government’s efforts to establish one-person, one-vote elections.
Although the opposition has not yet put forth a concrete alternative, their declarations indicate a favorable stance toward an indirect system with greater legitimacy, building upon existing electoral frameworks rather than discarding them.
During the 2016 elections, each parliamentary member was chosen by 51 representatives, forming an electoral college of 14,025 delegates. In 2022, this number increased, with each of the 275 lower house members elected by 101 delegates, expanding the total electoral college to 27,775. Opposition leaders seem inclined to further develop this approach, preserving the clan-based structure while enhancing participation to improve credibility.
Such mobilization is not unprecedented in Somali politics. During the 2022 electoral period, opposition leaders similarly united following parliamentary approval of a two-year term extension for then-President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo. That resolution provoked violent clashes in Mogadishu, divided security force factions, and brought the nation close to broader conflict before the extension was ultimately withdrawn. This incident continues to serve as a significant reference for both opposition groups and the general public.
Against this historical context, the Kismayo conference is largely viewed as an effort to take preemptive action rather than reacting belatedly. By organizing at this stage and establishing the Somali Future Council, opposition figures hope that they will establish the parameters for dialogue before Villa Somalia determines election schedules or frameworks.
The importance of this meeting cannot be overstated. Opposition representatives have clearly stated their opposition to any presidential term extension and have cautioned against unilateral constitutional modifications or elections conducted without consensus. Earlier this week, several Council members threatened the establishment of a parallel administration if the government fails to respond to their demands.
The outcomes following the Kismayo conference will hinge on the nature of the concluding resolutions and the response from Villa Somalia. Through either peaceful negotiation or confrontation, the determinations made during this event are expected to influence Somalia’s political path for weeks to come.
