The current crisis was ignited on December 26, 2025, when Israel became the first UN member state to officially recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state.
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The UAE Connection: Although the UAE formally rejected Israel’s move during an emergency Arab League summit, Somali officials remain deeply skeptical. They point to the UAE’s “Axis of Secessionists”—a strategy involving long-term investment in the Port of Berbera and deep political ties with Hargeisa—as the true catalyst for Israel’s decision.
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A New Front in Yemen: On December 30, 2025, Somalia issued a strategic statement supporting Yemen’s unity.5 This came just hours after Saudi Arabia issued a 24-hour ultimatum for the UAE to withdraw its forces from Yemen following Saudi airstrikes on UAE-linked vessels in the port of al-Mukalla.
Diplomatic and Personal Realignment
The rift is no longer just rhetorical; it has manifested in significant policy shifts and symbolic personal actions:
| Action | Impact / Significance |
| Family Relocation | President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud quietly moved his family from the UAE to Egypt in late December, according to sources in Mogadisu, signaling a personal and political break from Abu Dhabi. |
| Visa Restrictions | Reports indicate the UAE has begun accepting Somaliland passports while imposing severe restrictions and frequent rejections on Somali passport holders. |
| Regional Fracture | While most Somali states condemned the Somaliland recognition, Puntland and Jubaland—both recipients of Emirati support—have notably refrained from doing so. |
| The Saudi Pivot | On January 4, 2026, Somali Foreign Minister Abdisalam Abdi Ali met with Saudi Prince Faisal bin Farhan in Riyadh, securing a “firm commitment” to Somalia’s territorial integrity. |
The Emerging “Stability Bloc”
As Somalia moves away from the UAE’s orbit, it is cementing a new alliance with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Egypt. This “Stability Bloc” aims to counter the fragmentation of the Horn of Africa.
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The Turkish Factor: On December 30, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with President Mohamud in Ankara, reaffirming that Somalia’s integrity is “non-negotiable” and discussing 2026 oil exploration plans.
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Egypt’s Military Role: Following a 2024 defense pact, Egypt has increased military deliveries to Mogadishu, positioning itself as a primary security partner against both Al-Shabaab and secessionist threats.8
What’s Next?
The Somali cabinet is scheduled to hold an extraordinary meeting today (Monday, January 5, 2026) to discuss formally downgrading diplomatic ties with the UAE.9 While both sides have avoided a total rupture so far, the growing alignment between Mogadishu and Riyadh suggests that the “strategic partnership” with Abu Dhabi is effectively over
