MOGADISHU — Somalia’s federal government is considering capturing the strategic border town of Dolow on the country’s southern border with Ethiopia, following its recent military operation in Baidoa – the administrative center of Southwest state – last week that resulted in the removal of regional President Abdiasis Laftagaren.
In a related development, Mogadishu sent the commander of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) for Gedo region, Abdirashid Janan, to Ethiopia last month. He stayed there for several weeks before returning to Mogadishu on Tuesday.
Earlier in his security career, Janan controlled Dolow, where he served as the town’s top official for years under Ahmed Madobe, the president of Jubaland. During that period, international rights groups documented allegations of human rights abuses. Janan’s controversial return to Gedo as the newly appointed NISA chief for Jubbaland, once a fugitive from federal justice, has triggered a renewed sense of unrest in the long-contested region, with his sudden political rehabilitation seen by observers as a high-stakes gamble aimed at undermining Madobe’s influence.
Federal Push to Establish Parallel Administration in Gedo
In recent weeks, Mogadishu has repeatedly urged Addis Ababa to accept Janan as the top authority in Gedo region and cooperate with him. Ethiopian officials have thus far rejected those requests. Ethiopian military forces stationed in Dollow have previously given federal troops led by Janan a three-day deadline to withdraw from the contested border town of Beled-Hawo, marking a sharp escalation in simmering tensions in the Gedo region.
Simultaneously, the federal government has approached Jubaland officials in Dolow with substantial financial incentives to defect and align with Mogadishu, as part of a broader effort to weaken Jubaland’s control over the region. These attempts have not yet produced results. Meanwhile, a federal air blockade on the town has been in effect for nearly a year and a half and remains enforced. Jubbaland State has accused the Federal Government of deliberately grounding passenger flights to key towns in the Gedo region, describing it as a calculated blockade that has inflicted deep harm on the region’s economy and essential services.
Tensions between Mogadishu and Jubaland have gradually increased over recent years, developing into open military conflict. Deadly clashes between federal forces and regional troops loyal to Jubbaland President Ahmed Madobe in Beled-Hawo left at least four people dead and several others injured, marking a significant escalation in the long-standing dispute over control and security in the region. Federal forces have already captured several towns in Gedo region, including Balad Hawo and the regional administrative center, Garbaharey.
Jubbaland Rejects Federal Interference
Local media reports indicate that plans are under consideration to establish a parallel Jubbaland administration in Gedo, potentially led by Janan. However, it remains uncertain whether Mogadishu can secure control of Dolow and other remaining towns before taking such action, which could deepen divisions and provoke further violence.
The Jubbaland administration has issued a sharp rebuke against Somalia’s federal government, accusing it of “illegal interference” in the region’s internal affairs and warning that federal maneuvers in the contested Gedo province could trigger renewed instability. Jubbaland officials have stated that attempts to undermine their constitutional mandate through force or manipulation will only inflame tensions and risk plunging the region back into conflict.
Wider Federal Crisis and Political Fallout
The escalating confrontation between Mogadishu and Jubaland is part of a broader pattern. The Jubbaland regional administration has denounced the Federal Government’s actions as exceeding its authority and jeopardizing national unity, asserting that no single entity possesses the power to make unilateral decisions that impact the federal framework.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud recently hosted members of the “Future Council” (Kutlada Mustaqbal), a coalition that includes the leaders of Jubaland and Puntland, in an effort to break the intensifying political deadlock surrounding the country’s electoral process and constitutional amendments. The meeting came amid heightened tension, with opposition leaders firmly against recent constitutional revisions proposed by the government.
In a potential olive branch, Somalia’s government rescinded a previous arrest warrant against Jubaland President Ahmed Madoobe, permitting him to attend a significant meeting in Mogadishu. The Banadir Regional Court had issued the warrant in November 2024 following Madoobe’s re-election, which the federal government deemed unlawful.
As the federal government pushes forward with its agenda in Gedo, observers warn that without urgent mediation, Somalia could face yet another destabilizing power struggle, just as it seeks to transition toward full political and security sovereignty.
