Ankara, Turkiye – A Turkish intelligence academy report titled “A Multidimensional Partnership Model” has issued a warning about unprecedented fragility in Somalia, identifying the intensifying Al-Shabaab threat, political divisions, institutional deficiencies, external influences, and economic challenges as primary factors.
Though recognizing progress in Turkish-Somali relations, the report cautions that the operational environment faces significant risks that will shape both Somalia’s stability and the future of their bilateral ties.
Al-Shabaab is identified as a primary threat to Somalia’s security, with the group maintaining control over rural territories. Despite joint military operations gaining traction in 2022, the report indicates that Somalia failed to maintain momentum in the following years.
A diminished Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) presence in Puntland contributes to additional instability, though its influence remains confined. The assessment notes that the Somali National Army continues to require international support to ensure national security.
Another fundamental issue is the unfinished constitutional framework, the report observes, highlighting the tenuous connection between the federal government and regional states, both essential to Somalia’s reconstruction efforts.
This situation has led to recurring disputes regarding electoral processes and revenue distribution, especially involving Puntland and Jubbaland.
According to the report, these conflicts impede national decision-making and directly impact Turkiye’s development initiatives, which require consistent collaboration between federal and regional institutions.
Inadequate state institutions are also cited as a source of instability. Analysts characterize a governance crisis characterized by insufficient administrative capabilities, restricted monitoring systems, and reliance on foreign assistance that hinders Somalia’s ability to provide essential services independently.
While the intelligence review recognizes that debt relief obtained through IMF and World Bank reforms represents important progress, it points out that Somalia continues to lack the financial independence required for enduring stability. Ongoing delays in procurement and project implementation continue to obstruct advancement.
The intelligence report warns that future climate challenges could induce internal migration at scales that would strain state institutions and introduce further instability to an already vulnerable security environment. Geopolitical tensions combined with information warfare are also identified as risk factors.
Despite acknowledging progress in areas such as infrastructure development in Mogadishu, security cooperation initiatives aimed at enhancing the Somali military by 2030, and new economic prospects through East African Community membership, the assessment maintains that these achievements remain susceptible to the five fundamental risks influencing Somalia’s path.
Since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Mogadishu in 2011, Turkiye has progressively increased its political, economic, and military presence in Somalia.
Turkish involvement encompasses defense, infrastructure, healthcare, and humanitarian assistance, with Camp TURKSOM in Mogadishu functioning as Turkiye’s most extensive overseas military training facility, having educated more than 15,000 Somali soldiers. Turkish enterprises also manage critical infrastructure, such as Aden Adde International Airport and the Port of Mogadishu.
Turkish parliamentary deliberations have emphasized the strategic importance of this relationship, with officials drawing parallels between Somalia and Turkiye’s strategy in Syria: first establishing security, then creating opportunities for Turkish commercial ventures.
The nations have exchanged territories for embassy facilities, with Turkiye currently constructing a new Somali Embassy in Ankara subsequent to establishing its most extensive diplomatic mission abroad in Mogadishu.
Turkiye’s combined financial and developmental support for Somalia exceeds $1 billion, encompassing humanitarian assistance and debt relief. Nevertheless, Turkish media reports have suggested that substantial portions of this aid have been directed to companies affiliated with Erdogan operating in Somalia, prompting accusations that the government might be leveraging its foreign involvement to financially benefit specific domestic commercial entities.
Although bilateral trade declined from $426 million in 2023 to $384 million in 2024, Turkiye continues to be Somalia’s foremost foreign investor. Turkish operations have also generated international apprehension: UN investigators in 2022 discovered that Turkiye had provided armed drones to Somalia without UN authorization, possibly contravening international sanctions.
Critics contend that these developments indicate Turkiye’s involvement in Somalia may serve both strategic and domestic political-economic objectives. Nordic Monitor previously released the complete text of a comprehensive hydrocarbons accord between Turkiye and Somalia after its submission to the Turkish Parliament for ratification on April 22, 2025.
The disclosure of this document offered the first comprehensive understanding of the extent, conditions, and strategic objectives underpinning Ankara’s expanding energy and defense collaboration with Mogadishu. According to the agreement, Turkiye has obtained extensive operational and financial advantages.
