MOGADISHU — Somalia’s ousted South West State leader Abdiasis Laftagareen, removed from power last month in a federal military operation, is reportedly preparing to return and reestablish his administration, according to local news reports.
A spokesman for Laftagareen, Ugas Hassan Mohamed Abdi, said efforts were underway to revive what he described as the legitimate regional administration. The move comes barely a month after Laftagareen was re-elected in a controversial, expedited vote that the federal government rejected outright, declaring it invalid and unconstitutional.
That disputed election served as the trigger for a federal military operation in which Laftagareen was forced from office. On March 30, federal troops took control of Baidoa, and following intense, closed-door negotiations with federal officials, Laftagareen agreed to step down and subsequently departed for Nairobi, Kenya.
Forces Loyal to Laftagareen Relocate to Gedo Region
In recent developments, forces loyal to Laftagareen, along with dozens of technical vehicles, have withdrawn from their position in Awdinle town in Bay region and reportedly relocated to Dolow, a town along the Somalia-Ethiopia border in the neighboring Gedo region. Hundreds of fighters aligned with the former regional president have entered parts of Gedo, according to witnesses and officials.
Videos widely circulated on social media showed columns of armed men and pickup trucks mounted with heavy weapons moving deeper into Gedo, prompting concern among residents and political observers. The development underscores continuing tensions stemming from Laftagareen’s removal from Baidoa and highlights the fragile security situation in the region.
Ilyas Ali Hassan, Somalia’s ambassador to Tanzania and a figure involved in the recent political shift in South West, criticized the movement, alleging that weapons belonging to the regional administration had been transported to Dolow. “It is regrettable that arms purchased with public funds are being moved in this manner,” he said in a statement.
Federal Government Prepares for Baidoa Elections
Meanwhile, the federal government is preparing to hold elections in Baidoa in the coming weeks. The National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (NIEBC) has officially announced a delay in the submission deadline for candidate applications for the South West State electoral process, while also confirming the polling date for the upcoming regional elections.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is reported to have narrowed the field for the current Speaker of Parliament, Adan Madobe, positioning him as the sole candidate representing the ruling political camp. Madobe, a veteran politician and senior figure in the Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP), was received by Acting Leader Jibril Abdirashid Haji and local officials amid a heightened security presence in the regional capital. Political insiders suggest that Villa Somalia is positioning Madobe as its preferred candidate to lead the South West administration.
President Mohamud has privately signaled his intention to proceed with elections in three allied regional states—Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and South West State—before initiating broader federal electoral negotiations. According to a commission statement, elections in South West State will be held on April 28, 2026, while Galmudug and Hirshabelle will vote on May 13, 2026.
Allegations of Reprisal Killings and Insecurity
The federal takeover has not been without controversy. Mahad Abdirahman, the recently dismissed chief of the regional Custodial Corps, has alleged that two civilians belonging to the clan of ousted leader Laftagareen were killed and their bodies burned inside Speaker Madobe’s Baidoa home in what he described as a reprisal attack. These severe allegations currently remain independently unverified.
Abdirahman also addressed the lack of armed resistance from regional troops, explaining that local forces chose a strategy of survival rather than direct confrontation, noting they were vastly outgunned by a larger federal contingent backed by military aircraft and heavy armored vehicles. He stated that roughly 2,000 former regional fighters who remain loyal to Laftagareen are currently stationed in nearby Awdinle in a strict defensive posture.
An uneasy calm has settled over Baidoa after the Federal Government assumed full administrative and security control of the city. Following his official resignation and negotiated exit, Laftagareen departed the country after seven years in power. In one of his final acts before boarding a flight to Kenya, Laftagareen appointed the South West Minister of Finance, Ahmed Mohamed Hussein, to serve as the Acting President during the volatile transition.
Leadership Succession Race Intensifies
The federal intervention has sparked a fierce competition for leadership within President Mohamud’s closest associates. Candidates vying for the regional presidency include federal parliamentary speaker Adan Mohamed Nur, Ports Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, and Livestock Minister Hassan Elay. Observers suggest the outcome will likely depend on the president’s personal backing as he works to strengthen federal authority over this semi-autonomous territory.
The Interim Leader of South West State, Jibril Abdirashid Haji, recently received presidential candidate Abdiaziz Mohamed Sheikh Osman (Jawaari) at the Presidential Palace in Baidoa. The meeting involved discussions on the general political landscape, electoral procedures, and the significance of enhancing unity and stability throughout the regions.
Madobe’s Previous Role and Justice and Solidarity Party
Speaker Madobe has previously traveled to Baidoa to oversee political transitions. On March 31, immediately following the federal military takeover of the city and Laftagareen’s resignation, Madobe arrived to lead the federal transition team. He convened a high-level strategic meeting with Somali National Army commanders to evaluate security conditions and bolster stabilization initiatives.
Madobe is a senior figure in the Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP), which was officially launched in Mogadishu in May 2025. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected as the leader of the newly formed party and formally declared as its presidential candidate. The JSP’s leadership structure includes four deputy leaders: Abdiaziz Hassan Laftagareen, Sadia Yasin Samatar, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, and Deputy Prime Minister Salah Ahmed Jama.
Opposition Backs Laftagareen’s Challenge
The federal government’s intervention has drawn sharp criticism from regional states. The Somali Future Council — a powerful political alliance comprising Jubbaland, Puntland, and the Salvation Forum — has issued a formal statement endorsing Laftagareen’s challenge to federal authority. The council declared complete support for South West State’s decision to conduct independent, “free and fair” regional elections, demonstrating a united front against Mogadishu’s proposed electoral framework.
The core dispute centers on federal constitutional amendments passed without regional consensus and the central government’s push for a “one-person, one-vote” system — a model that regional states deem currently impractical.
Security Conference and Federal Commitment
At a concluding security conference with senior police and intelligence officials in Baidoa, President Mohamud emphasized the necessity of coordinated measures to prevent Al-Shabaab from capitalizing on the political instability. According to officials, the president received detailed briefings on plans to intensify operations against the militant group, strengthen coordination among security agencies, and restore public order in Baidoa.
Federal authorities remain committed to implementing universal suffrage in South West State. Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre has declared that there will be no elections in Baidoa or across South West other than a one-person, one-vote process.
“We will not allow, in any way, disorder, revenge, clan-based discrimination or any trouble in Baidoa,” Prime Minister Hamza has stated.
Outlook
The troop movement into Gedo comes days after commanders aligned with Laftagareen declared they would resist any attempt by the federal government to organize elections in Baidoa or install a new regional president. No immediate response was issued by federal authorities or Jubaland officials regarding the deployment.
As both federal and opposition forces posture for the next phase of the political standoff, residents of Baidoa and the wider South West region remain caught in the middle of a power struggle that has already displaced thousands and disrupted essential services. The scheduled April 28 elections would mark one of the most significant electoral experiments in Somalia in decades, testing the country’s capacity to transition from negotiated power-sharing to direct public voting at the regional level. The coming weeks will determine whether the federal government can consolidate its control or whether Laftagareen’s promised return will reignite conflict in one of Somalia’s most strategically significant regions.
