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We will like to draw your attention to the ongoing political crisis in Somalia and hope our July Dhambal will allow you to take a well-informed decision in these chaotic times.
In this Dhambal, FTL experts concluded that:
The country has entered into a well-engineered and planned Constitutional and Political Crisis as ordained by the Political Elite. Something that must occur at least once in every 4 – 5 years, allowing the culprits to be the heroes guiding the country through the difficult transition while avoiding a Political Singularity.
The threefold threat:
In addition to the threefold threat the country is facing and the usual interference from regional and Gulf countries, the involvement of some ‘conventional’ Members of the International Community is adding a new dimension to the electoral complexity.
The tone-deaf Joint Statement issued by the IC on 24th July in which western donors recommended to ‘steer the country away from indirect elections’, made Somalis raise their eyebrows as this implies the endorsement of a term extension and will undermine the ongoing Dhusamareb Conference and possibly encouraged select actors to openly go after the Prime Minister.
There is a concern that the situation could result in an ideological clash between the Political Elite preferring a new Political Pact and some members of the IC who are determined to witness a One-Person-One-Vote election taking place in Somalia, but more importantly, this must happen within the remaining time of their diplomatic mission to Somalia.
FTL Experts recommend Members of the International Community to resist the temptation to become the voice of the Somalis as this, specially when combined with career ambition of diplomats, could lead to utilitarianism thinking that potentially can worsen the situation. Moving forward, a more united and restrained IC approach is recommended.
Drivers of Instability:
In this Dhambal, FTL legal experts have underlined the irregularities surrounding the ousting of Prime Minister Khayre while the political experts identified threats and opportunities that the ongoing competition for the seat of the Prime Minister could bring about.
Some of the present-day Drivers of Instability that needs monitoring and highlighted in the Dhambal include:
- Freedom Encroachment by FGS and the FMS leaders
- The upcoming Muddulood Conference
- The upcoming Dhusamareb III conference (without an immediate intervention, a 6-weeks delay is to be expected).
- FGS expansion drift and the FGS-FMS impasse
- The Somaliland – Somalia talk
- The ongoing Gerrymandering and the 30% quota for women
Despite the plethora of risks that must be managed in the run-up to the elections, there are also opportunities that can be utilised to further the political stability of the country.
FTL experts identified three possible scenarios and recommend ‘the Broad and Inclusive Scenario’ while the ‘the Centre Oriented Scenario’ is discouraged.
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